Kosovo: The Fuse on the Balkan Powder Keg

By David Edenden

Below is an brief analysis by Stratfor of the "independence for Kosovo is inevitable" doctrine followed by the United States and the EU. They hope that it will not destabilize Macedonia, but have not given any thought of what to do if all hell breaks lose. This was the same policy process by which the Americans invaded Iraq.

I have come th the conclusion that some of the leading policy makers regarding the Balkans are just plain dumber than dirt. That's the only explanation that makes any sense..

If things go badly in the Balkans after Kosovo's independence, no doubt the pundits in Washington, London and Paris will shake their heads and say "wow look at those nut cases in the Balkans".

Kosovo: The Fuse on the Balkan Powder Keg:
Stratfor, Nov 16, 2007

Macedonia

The militants in Kosovo have also been linked to Albanians crossing the border from Macedonia. Albanians are the ethnic minority within Macedonia but hold the majority of the northwestern part of the country. The Macedonian-Kosovar border is mountainous and incredibly porous, leading to large border crossings that the already weak Macedonian military cannot prevent. These Albanians and Kosovar Albanians have been seen actively engaging in violence on both sides of the border, proving that the wounds from the 2001 Macedonia conflict -- in which the Albanians within the country began attacking Macedonian forces -- are still fresh.

Internally, Macedonia has been politically unstable because of the main Albanian party actively pushing against the government as it keeps its eyes on Kosovo. Macedonia is trying to keep a lid on any large-scale violence because of its aspirations to join the EU, but hostilities have broken out within Macedonia's borders. On Nov. 7, Macedonian police killed four Albanians in an operation called Mountain Storm on Mount Sar Planina. Macedonian police said the Albanians were planning a major terrorist act that would destabilize both Kosovo and Macedonia.